Blog written March 2011

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I read a facebook status update from Jane Fonda's son, Troy Garity a few days ago.

"People need to chill with the earthquake rumors"

The update received 12 comments.
11 of those agreed with Troy.
Let me mention just five of these comments to you,

"it's harshing my mellow", "people "need" to just chill in general",
"Just looking out the window at the rain falling down, nothing is melting yet.....",
"Stop worrying about things that haven't happened. That is time not lived." and last but not least
"Stop waiting for the storm to pass and start learning how to dance in the rain."

These sentences of true wisdom have started me thinking.
Obviously I was the only one worried here. Obviously it was so unpopular to worry even though we all see the horrible repercussions of an earthquake in Japan.
However I discovered I was not completely alone…
On March 26, 2011, 250,000 people were on the streets in Germany, demonstrating under the Motto: "Fukushima reminds us to shut down every nuclear power plant". Even politicians stand side by side to demand a change.  Anti-nuclear activists participated in a demonstration in Sant Jaume Square, Barcelona. Hundreds of people took part in protests held across Spain Thursday to demand the closure of the country's six nuclear power stations after Japan's nuclear accident following a massive earthquake and there were other demonstrations all over Europe. Interesting that suddenly this theme becomes popular again and it is sad that something terrible had to happen to remind us of the dangers of nuclear power technology. Another good example of this behavior is seen in Austria, where after the Chernobyl accident, activist groups from several European countries founded Anti Atom International (AAI). The aim of the organization is to collect and distribute information as well as to coordinate international action against the nuclear power industry. In autumn 1988 we saw the tenth anniversary of the successful referendum of Austria's “"No to Nuclear Power"”. The question is now...
is it crazy to worry AFTER an accident has happened or is it crazy to JUST worry after an accident has happened to make sure we avoid certain situations again?
I agree that fear mongering does not help anyone - but I think a realistic rational point of view and a fundamental understanding of the situation we are in, should sound - even for the most easy going LA party cracker - like a reasonable idea.
A Video uploaded on March 15th 2011 received my attention. Interviewed on Fox News, Jim Berkland predicted an earthquake was inevitable in California's very near future. He cited as factors for his prediction the highest tides in 18 years, the proximity of the Moon to the earth and the pattern of recent large earthquakes around the famous Pacific tectonic plate.
Jim Berkland is a geologist who focuses his studies on earthquake prediction. He claims to have developed an accurate method for predicting earthquakes and offers his predictions through media appearances and publications. In an interview published on October 13, 1989, one day before the start of baseball's World Series, Berkland predicted that an earthquake with a magnitude between 3.5 and 6.0 would occur in the San Francisco Bay Area between October 14 and October 21. The 6.9-magnitude Loma Prieta earthquake occurred on October 17, just before the start of the third game of the Baseball Series. Berkland claims as a result that government officials told him not to make any more predictions, fearing mass panic, and he was suspended for two months from his Santa Clara County geology position in late October 1989. In an announcement on his Internet web site, Berkland predicted an earthquake occuring between January 9th and the 14th of 2009. Jim Berkland is, in consideration of this, someone who is very familiar with earthquake predictions.
Of course all this is not proof of an upcoming earthquake. Actually nobody can predict an earthquake for sure.
But allow me one more thought. The Pacific Ring of Fire (or sometimes just the Ring of Fire) is an area where large numbers of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur in the basin of the Pacific Ocean. If you study earthquake history in this area, you very quickly realize you don't really need to be an experienced geologist to recognize that Californias West Coast very reasonably could be the next location for a big earthquake.
Jim Berkland predicted an earthquake in the Los Angeles area sometime between March 19th and March 26th, 2011. Nothing happened.
Does that relax me totally? I have to admit, not really.
But what can we do? Leave the city, the country; hoard water and cans of lentil soup? Run around in a state of mass paranoia and camp in an empty field?
Well...probably not and I agree, it makes no sense to worry about things I cannot change anyway. I cannot prevent an earthquake in California or anywhere else in the world. I cannot prepare myself for the

worst case if it blocks my daily life but we should ask questions, research

and exchange opinions.
The nuclear power plants operating in California are Diablo Canyon,

near San Luis Obispo and San Onofre, about midway between

Los Angeles and San Diego. The closest is about 80 Miles from LA

and built on the cliffs near a geological fault. Both are designed and

built by GE, which is the same manufacturer as the failing Fukushima

nuclear power plant that has received so much attention lately.
The nuclear power plant on the coast to the north of Hermosa and the

one to the south, are designed to resist 7.5 and 7.0 quakes respectively.

To put this in perspective, the plants would be safe in an earthquake

the size of the one that hit Haiti last year. They would not be safe in

an earthquake as big as the one that leveled San Francisco in 1906,

which was a 7.8-magnitude. In this case we could likely be in the exact same position that the east coast of Japan is in now.
So, do I think we should live in fear? Of course not.
Do I think we should have a realistic awareness of the dangers? Yes.
Do I wonder why the nuclear reactors are still running in consideration of the facts? Indeed!
In answer to the five quotes at the beginning...
Sorry that I am harshing your mellow, I am in general - pretty chilled, but I believe in having an opinion. When you're looking out the window, you cannot see that the rain is melting something....YET?. For a sentence like that, we actually would need a fourth monkey, holding his forehead. The time I am not living because I spent it concerned - hopefully makes up for the time I am living better after I found a solution. That is the whole point of doing it.
The best prediction of the future is the past and so we have two opportunities,
A, we are waiting for the rain to dance in again or B, because we are intelligent human beings, we grab an umbrella...if even just in case.                                                                                                  

                                                                                                Also see